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"In 2016, and even longer, the overall sales volume of China's heavy vehicles will continue to decline, but the overall value will continue to rise." A few days ago, at the 2015 International Forum on Heavy Commercial Vehicles hosted by China Automotive News, the economic experts, Truck manufacturers and component manufacturers have expressed this view.
Why does the amount fall? 
The declining trend of China's heavy-duty truck market in 2015 is a foregone conclusion, and in 2016, the heavy-duty truck market still has no basis for recovery. It can be seen that the days of heavy-duty truck companies will not be too bad in the next year.
The country’s economic trend is sensitive to the nerves of the commercial vehicle market. Currently, it is necessary to consider the necessary conditions for the recovery of the commercial vehicle market – GDP is unlikely to increase. “The correlation between commercial vehicle market and GDP is very high, and it is the same as the trend of GDP. Therefore, the deceleration in the future development of China's economy will inevitably affect the demand for heavy trucks, which will also slow down.†Director of Information Resources Department, National Information Center, Senior Economist Xu Changming proved this argument with a series of figures. He pointed out that with the transformation and upgrading of China's economy and changes in the industrial structure, people's consumption has gradually shifted from consumption as the main body to service consumption. When most people purchase houses and cars, the consumption of services such as medical care, education, and tourism will increase, while the increase in the proportion of the output value of the service industry in GDP will result in a decrease in transportation intensity, which will reduce the number of heavy trucks. 
His judgment is: "In the future, market forces will become more and more intensified, and market-oriented future will mean improvement in efficiency." Continuing Xu Changming's judgment, for the rapid rise of express logistics in the past two years, to compete in this market The biggest weapon is - efficiency. High-efficiency transport requires high-quality trucks and not a greater number of trucks.
“Actually, the integration of the transportation industry has only just begun. In the next 10 years, the total number of Chinese logistics companies will be reduced from the current 760,000 to 70,000.†Mats Harborn, executive director of Scania China Strategic Center The heavy truck user community has a clear forecast.
At present, China has created many companies that operate as corporatists like Debon. Thousand kilometers of trunk lines are transported by suspension. These heavy vehicles basically consist of imported brands such as Volvo, Mercedes-Benz and Scania, because these routes require the engine to run without failure.
Xu Changming concluded that there are several major trends for heavy trucks in the future: First, the market is growing at a relatively low rate, and it is almost impossible to return to the previous high-growth state. Second, the upgrading of product technology will accelerate, and through statistics on the past six years, it is found that the higher the price of cars, the faster the growth.
Why does the price rise? 
Mike Harman, the vice president of global sales for ConMet, believes that the changes China Logistics is now facing are similar to those of the United States in the past 15-20 years, such as rapid urbanization, and the government's policy development to pay more attention to the consumer economy. Factors will change China's mode of transportation. In the future, trucks will have more long-distance transportation and higher speeds. This will bring new challenges to the quality of trucks. Larger horsepower, higher fuel economy and more reliable components will be more cost-effective for customers. In short, the ultimate goal is to reduce truck downtime and maximize equipment utilization.
“In the future, heavy trucks must be improved in terms of transportation efficiency, fuel efficiency, and economic efficiency to meet new customer needs.†Mats Harborn agrees with the consensus reached by this industry group. He further explained that the operating costs of heavy trucks now include fuel costs, road and bridge fees, driver salaries, and equipment depreciation. If the vehicle product upgrade can reduce these costs, not only can it save energy and reduce consumption, but it can also increase manufacturing value. 
He Mochi predicts that "China's low-end heavy truck market will disappear in the future. Once China fully implements the Sixth National Emission Standard, the entire market will become high-end. If China begins to implement the National VI, China will become a high-end truck market. It means that the local truck sales price will be much higher than today."
Wu Zhijun, general manager of China/Asia in Navistar China, believes that vehicle interconnection is the future direction of heavy-duty vehicles, because it is convenient for fleet management and operation, and at the same time that Chinese heavy vehicles face the challenge of reducing exhaust emissions and fuel consumption at the same time. Improve the overall fuel economy of the industry. Wu Zhijun said that the long truck market in China will depend on regulations and whether the relevant departments can give customers a choice, but after the policy is liberalized, long trucks and trucks will coexist.
In addition, besides the general trend of declining demand and rising value in China's heavy-duty truck market, Xu Changming also gave hope. He said: “In the future, after China's economic structure has been adjusted to a certain level, heavy-duty trucks will pick up.â€
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Will the heavy-duty truck market increase in 2016 or even longer?