The internal combustion engine industry entered a period of adjustment to support policy values

Experts believe that the golden period of rapid growth of the internal combustion engine industry for many years has passed and is entering the adjustment period. However, the gap between China's internal combustion engine industry and foreign advanced level is still large. Therefore, the state should support enterprises to upgrade the industry from the policy level.

In 2008, the output value of China's internal combustion engine has reached an annual output of 57 million units and 1 billion kilowatts. However, some experts believe that the internal combustion engine companies have been affected by the financial crisis and foreign trade barriers. The golden period of continuous rapid growth for many years has passed. In 2009, how will the internal combustion engine manufacturers continue to face multiple environmental factors such as increasing environmental protection thresholds and intensifying competition in the domestic market?

Enter the adjustment phase

According to the analysis of the China Internal Combustion Engine Industry Association, the growth rate of the industry-wide benefits and output in 2009 will not be significantly higher than last year, and the industry will enter the adjustment phase during this period. It is expected that the growth rate of the whole industry will be 6% to 8%, and the output of the product is expected to exceed 60 million units, showing a trend of “low before and after high” throughout the year.

The internal combustion engine used in motor vehicles is still dominated by the international market, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly. The light commercial vehicle engine will be driven by the sales volume and market share due to the implementation of the National 3rd emission standard on July 1st. It will grow rapidly in the first half of the year and will obviously decline in the second half of the year, such as 6 liters to 12 liters of medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles. With diesel engines will fall back.

The production growth of non-road mobile machinery engine manufacturing industry, especially agricultural machinery and construction machinery will be faster; low-speed truck diesel engines and single-cylinder diesel engines may have the same negative growth as in 2008.

Exports of diesel engines for non-road mobile machinery, general small gasoline engines and basic parts and components will maintain growth, but the growth rate is expected to be only single digits.

New changes will also occur in the industrial structure. On the one hand, the diesel engine fuel system manufacturing system and the post-discharge treatment manufacturing system will focus on the future technological development; on the other hand, there will be mergers and acquisitions of foreign-funded enterprises in China. This also means that the new joint venture will enter the internal combustion engine industry in China, intensifying domestic enterprises. competition.

Some experts believe that the implementation of the National Automobile Industry Invigoration Adjustment Plan, the Equipment Manufacturing Invigoration Adjustment Plan, the Shipbuilding Industry Revitalization Plan, and the implementation of the country's “Three Agriculture” policy will further promote the stable development of the internal combustion engine industry. At the same time, in order to stimulate the Chinese economy in 2009, the Central Government and local governments have already issued supporting measures. In the trillion-dollar bailout plan, only a few hundred billion yuan is currently invested.

Industry insiders believe that there is a large amount of infrastructure projects in China this year, and diesel engines still have a certain market demand. From the situation of Xichai, Yuchai, Laidong and Jianghuai, the relevant policies to stimulate agricultural machinery have taken initial effect. Judging from the statistics of auto vehicles, even in the most difficult period after September 2008, the sales growth of trucks with a load of less than 1.8 tons is also higher than 15%. Therefore, light diesel engines may be the first to get out of winter.

According to analysis, the heavy-duty truck industry will resume its upward trend in the second half of 2009. It is expected that the demand for heavy-duty trucks will fall slightly by 5% in 2009, but the demand growth rate in the second half of 2009 and 2010 will be above 15%.

Increased challenge

"This year the industry is still facing more challenges." An expert analyzed that China's internal combustion engine industry is facing difficulties in both market and technology.

In the market, due to stricter environmental regulations, several rising energy and raw materials, and vicious competition in the market, the low-end diesel engine products have entered a difficult period of development. The development of small internal combustion engines has been constrained to some extent, and it is difficult to meet domestic The needs of foreign markets, and high-power diesel engines need to be introduced after the introduction of technology to absorb and re-innovation, to solve the rapid development of the shipbuilding industry and the slow supply of self-owned brand hosts and other issues.

In terms of technology, the focus of innovation in internal combustion engines is on energy conservation and emission reduction. The country's overall energy conservation and emission reduction standards and implementation schedule developed in accordance with international research and development levels have brought about considerable pressure on companies.