The reporter learned from the Fourth Session of the Fourth Session of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association held recently that due to technological progress and comprehensive competitiveness, China’s chemical fiber industry has entered a new round of rising channels since 2007 and is expected to continue this year. This kind of good development momentum.
Zhao Xiangdong, vice chairman of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, said that although it is subject to high prices of chemical fiber raw materials, inverted import tariffs on chemical fiber products and raw materials, accelerated appreciation of the renminbi, declining export tax rebate rate, and increased international trade frictions, it is facing stronger demand. Driven by the active factors such as pulling, mechanism and localization technology, China's chemical fiber industry still achieved net export for the first time last year. Industry insiders also pointed out that the economic operation and development of the chemical fiber industry will still be in a rising channel this year.
Chemical fiber industry realizes net export for the first time
In 2007, the economic operating characteristics of China's chemical fiber industry can be summarized as basically stable operation of the market, continued rapid development of production, substantial economic growth, and good running quality. According to the latest statistics from the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, in 2007 China's chemical fiber industry completed a total of 23.89 million tons of chemical fiber production, an increase of 18.04% year-on-year. Among them, the fastest-growing is viscose fiber, an increase of 27.8%, the output reached 1,542,900 tons; polyester rose 18.84%, output reached 19,177,700 tons; nylon rose 14.93%, production of 951,200 tons; acrylic fiber production growth is less The increase was only 0.67%; polypropylene and vinylon showed negative growth.
At the same time as the rapid growth of production, the sales of chemical fiber products were in good condition. The production and sales rate of the main products reached more than 95%, and the average sales rate of the entire industry was 98.24%. What is gratifying is that in 2007 China's chemical fiber exports exceeded imports for the first time, and net exports reached 433,100 tons throughout the year. With the exception of acrylic and nylon filaments, all other varieties achieved net exports.
High investment growth aggravates structural adjustment pressure
Zhao Xiangdong said that although the chemical fiber industry achieved good results in 2007, there are still some problems, mainly reflected in six aspects: First, the high prices of chemical fiber raw materials, individual raw material prices may continue to rise; Second, the industry is fixed The rebound in asset investment pressure is still relatively large and needs attention; Third, the industry’s overall R&D investment is insufficient, and the added value of chemical fiber products is low; Fourth, the growth rate of textile and apparel exports is slowing, which in turn affects the downstream demand of chemical fiber products; Fifth, some conventional products appear Overcapacity, structural contradictions are more prominent; Sixthly, the export of some chemical fiber products has grown too fast, which may cause the rapid increase of international trade friction.
Zheng Junlin, deputy secretary-general of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, pointed out that in 2008, in the face of the expected slowdown in the world economic growth, the chemical fiber textile industry may face three challenges: First, the price of raw materials and labor costs caused by domestic inflation have increased. Seriously affect the normal production and operation of chemical fiber export enterprises; Second, the high growth of industrial investment will further exacerbate the pressure and risk of structural adjustment; Third, the key to structural adjustment of chemical fiber industry lies in how to improve the effective demand of domestic and foreign consumer markets.
Some industries are facing excess capacity
Zhao Xiangdong believes that there are four main factors that restrict the development speed of the chemical fiber industry in 2008:
First, China's economic growth rate has moderately slowed down, and it is expected that this year's economic growth rate will reach about 10%.
Second, the country's macro-control efforts have been strengthened. The tightened monetary policy in 2008 will have a major impact on the production and operation of the chemical fiber industry, which is mainly reflected in the increased difficulty of corporate liquidity loans, and the capital turnover may be under greater pressure.
Third, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in the industry is relatively fast, and there are pressures on overcapacity in some industries. In 2007, China’s chemical fiber manufacturing industry completed a total investment of 27.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%. These new investments will exert greater pressure on the market operation this year, and the pressure on overcapacity of some chemical fiber products remains high.
Fourth, the industry’s investment in R&D is seriously insufficient and its innovation ability is weak. Especially in the fields of high-tech fibers, energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies, domestic chemical fiber companies have relatively weak innovation capabilities.
The advantages of China's chemical fiber industry remain unchanged
It is widely expected by the industry that in 2008, the chemical fiber industry may encounter a cold period. Zhao Xiangdong analyzed that the operation and development of the chemical fiber industry will still be in a rising channel this year. There are still some positive factors that can support the stable operation of the chemical fiber industry.
First of all, the global economy is unlikely to fall into a recession. In particular, the development prospects of emerging economies such as China and India are still promising. In particular, the steady growth of the Chinese economy will provide a good market growth space for the development of the chemical fiber industry.
Second, the cumulative advantages of China's chemical fiber industry will exist for a long time. China's chemical fiber industry, born in the late 1990s, adopted relatively advanced technology equipment and management methods in the early development stage, which is conducive to increasing labor productivity and reducing production costs.
Third, technological progress in the chemical fiber industry will continue to be rapid, and corporate R&D investment will also increase. In fact, more and more chemical fiber companies have realized the importance of independent innovation. Many companies' R&D investment has accounted for 2% to 3% of sales revenue, and some companies even have more than 5% R&D investment.
Fourth, the macro-control measures that affect the economic operation of the country have become increasingly mature. The operating procedures of intermediary organizations such as industry associations have also become more standardized, and their ability to guide the sustainable development of the industry has been rapidly improved.
Wang Qiang, editor-in-chief of First Textile Net, also believes that under the background that crude oil prices continue to hit new highs, chemical fiber prices, and downstream product prices have changed little or even declined, gross margin indicators that reflect industry profitability have not changed significantly. Moreover, in 2007 China's chemical fiber industry realized a total profit of nearly 15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase. This phenomenon indicates that the chemical fiber industry can offset the adverse impact of rising oil prices on the industry to some extent through technological advancement, increase in value-added products, economies of scale, listing of PTA futures contracts, and industry self-regulation.
Zhao Xiangdong stated that due to the slowdown in downstream textile demand growth, sluggish performance, and rising crude oil prices, the overall operation of China's chemical fiber industry is expected to exhibit seven major trends this year: Production growth will slow down, but operating quality will increase, and economic efficiency will be promising. Maintaining a good level, the market operation is basically stable, and the prices of some products have risen due to the increase in prices of raw materials; investment in fixed assets has fallen, but the pace of structural adjustment and industrial upgrading has accelerated; industry investment in R&D has increased, and industrial competitiveness has been continuously improved; market competition Intensified, the process of M&A and reorganization in the industry has been significantly accelerated; product imports have continued to decline rapidly, and exports have maintained rapid growth; the pace of the industry's “going out†has accelerated, and it is expected to make breakthroughs in the raw materials sector.
Related reports: Chemical fiber export growth will be reduced to 30% this year
In 2008, China’s chemical fiber exports will continue to maintain rapid growth, but the growth rate has decreased, and is expected to drop from 40% last year to 30%. Zheng Junlin, deputy secretary-general of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, said in an interview with the China Industry News reporter that the first reason for making this prediction is that the world economy, especially the economic slowdown in the United States, has affected export demand.
The report of the “World Economic Situation and Prospects in 2008†released by the UN predicts that the world economic growth rate will slow down to 3.4% this year, while the U.S. economic growth rate will maintain at around 2%. Industry sources pointed out that the weak US economy will have two negative impacts on China's chemical fiber industry's exports: First, it will affect the direct exports of China's chemical fiber raw materials and the indirect exports of the downstream textile and apparel industries, while the decline in the export volume of textile and apparel products will in turn It will have a negative impact on the demand for chemical fiber raw materials. Second, the economic slowdown in the United States will drive up the rise in international crude oil prices, which will increase the production costs of domestic chemical fiber companies and thus reduce the export competitiveness of chemical fiber products.
According to report, 95% of products in China's chemical fiber industry belong to the oil industry chain, and raw material costs account for about 80% of the total production cost. Zhao Xiangdong, vice chairman of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, predicts that international oil prices will remain high and fluctuate this year. As a result, the prices of various raw materials for synthetic fibers continue to rise, and there are increasing pressures.
As the EU-China Textile Export Agreement expired at the end of last year, a set of bilateral monitoring systems jointly implemented by China and the EU was adopted instead. Of the eight categories of textiles included in the monitoring system, there were five categories with an export growth rate of more than 100% in the first month of this year, and the remaining three categories also increased by more than 30%. However, their export prices have decreased significantly. It is highly probable that the EU will once again provide restrictions on China’s textile exports.
At the same time, measures such as anti-dumping, anti-subsidy and technical standards will become China's chemical fiber export enterprises must face the trade barriers. For example, the European and American markets currently adopt methods such as signing an agreement for the export of Chinese textiles, and at the same time adopt severe punishment measures for illegal re-exports outside the agreement.
In addition, the policy effect of China's textile export tax rebate rate reduction will continue. Due to the lagging effect of policy controls, the impact of the tax rebate on textile exports has not yet been transferred to the chemical fiber industry chain. For some time in the future, the above policy effects will inevitably cause greater pressure on domestic chemical fiber companies to export.
Zheng Junlin believes that under the combined effects of various factors, the export structure of China's chemical fiber products will gradually be optimized. He said: "This is not only reflected in the number of exports, but more importantly in terms of structural optimization and product quality. At the same time, the pace of self-adjustment of domestic chemical fiber exporters will also be accelerated."
The business climate is still good. My chemical fiber industry's advantages are hard to change in the short term.
In the first two months of 2008, China’s chemical fiber industry is no longer in the limelight. Affected by the accelerated expansion of production capacity and slow start-up of downstream demand, the prices of chemical fiber industry chains, especially the prices of spandex and viscose, have continued to fall over and there has been an increase in product inventories and profitability. Falling phenomenon.
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