Increase in machinery industry is lower than manufacturing and equipment industry

Increase in machinery industry is lower than manufacturing and equipment industry

6.8%, which is the accumulative growth rate of the machinery industry in the first two months of this year, not only lower than the manufacturing industry by 0.7% over the same period, but also 1.4% lower than that of the equipment manufacturing industry, which is equal to the national industry. This is a phenomenon that is rare in recent years and that is "not higher than the national industry, but also lower than the manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries."
In this regard, at the first quarter economic operation analysis meeting convened by the Expert Committee of the China Communications Industry Association, Cai Weici, special advisor to the China Federation of Machinery Industry, said that the overall situation is rather grim, mainly because the macroeconomic environment has not fundamentally improved, especially investment and consumer demand. None have improved. At the same time, the industry’s own excess capacity has exacerbated this dilemma. Coupled with the high growth curve after the industry last year, this year's decline has become even more apparent.
The start of the downturn in the price index is not optimistic. Cai Weici summarized the performance of the machinery industry sub-sector in the first quarter as three types. Among them, automobiles, instrumentation, basic parts, and internal combustion engines are slightly higher than the average growth of the industry; electrical, petrochemical, etc. are equivalent to the average growth of the industry; heavy-duty, construction machinery, agricultural machinery, machine tools, etc., may be slightly lower than the average. From the specific data, among the 49 medium-sized industries that are counted by the Bureau of Statistics, there were 30 year-on-year growth rates in January-February this year.
Affected by the lack of demand, the market for machinery products has become more competitive, and the overall price level has continued the downturn of the previous year. The cumulative price index has remained below 100% for 38 months. From the price index of the 142 main products in the machinery industry statistics, the varieties with the price index higher than 100% continue to decrease, and the varieties with less than 100% are still increasing. The price index is still not optimistic.
Cai Weici said that there are many unpredictable factors in the figures at the beginning of the year. Based on the analysis and judgment, the growth rate of the machinery industry will be higher than the level of January-February in March, especially in the second quarter.
From the perspective of the internal combustion engine industry, the sales volume of internal combustion engines in February was 3.77 million units, a decrease of 27% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%. Among them, the growth of the gasoline engine market is strong, the passenger car market still leads the internal combustion engine market, and the Xiaotong machine market has a good start. The decline in the diesel engine market was obvious, and some companies had achieved a decline of more than 20%. All sub-markets supporting diesel engines have experienced different degrees of decline.
The relevant person in charge of the internal combustion engine industry association said at the meeting that through the analysis of import and export data last year, although the overall internal combustion engine industry in China was a trade surplus, the calculation found that the unit price of imported products was much higher than the unit price of export products, which was close to 10 times. Although large quantities of export products, but technical content is generally low prices, to achieve industrial upgrading and increase brand premium is the industry's urgent problem to be solved.
Accounts Receivable Increases Corporate Financial Pressure Uninterrupted China Industry News reporter learned at the meeting that in the first two months of this year, the biggest difficulty faced by machinery companies was still unabated financial pressure, accounts receivable increased, market demand continued to slump.
From the perspective of the general machinery industry, among the six major products in the general machinery industry in January-February, pumps, compressors, gas separation and liquefaction equipment, and speed reducers increased year-on-year, and fan and valve decreased year-on-year. The industrial added value of pumps, compressors and valves increased by 5.5% in the first two months of the previous year. The value-added of the fan industry increased by 7.6% year-on-year, and that of other general machinery industries increased by 5.6% year-on-year.
The relevant person in charge of the General Machinery Industry Association stated that at present, many companies in the general machinery industry have gradually adapted to the new normal of China's economy, but high receivables remain a prominent issue facing the development of the industry. Among them, some users postponed receiving goods, or refused payment with all kinds of unjustified reasons. At the same time, the price war has intensified, and some companies, in order to compete for the market, regardless of costs, profit or even no profit to accept orders, and some at the expense of product quality, disrupted the market. The association suggested that the industry associations establish the guiding price of the product market, and formulate corresponding line regulations as soon as possible to regulate the market.
From the perspective of heavy machinery industry, the total output value of the industry fell by 9.6% in January-February, the industrial sales value decreased by 3.88%, and the amount of orders fell by 19.35%. The situation of heavy machinery enterprises is different, and the ordering situation of advantageous enterprises is good, and the inferior companies are shuffled seriously. The lack of market demand, new orders dropped year-on-year, and the distribution was uneven.
Since the beginning of this year, new ordering prices in the heavy machinery industry have remained low, and prices of some traditional products are still falling. Although the purchase prices of raw materials and accessories have also declined, it is not enough to make up for the impact of falling prices on profits, and the pressure on corporate profits remains high.
Relevant person in charge of the Heavy Machinery Industry Association said that the shortage of funds in the industry is still an important issue. In the current economic environment, corporate funds have become tense and it has been more difficult to make repayments, which has reduced the proportion of cash in repayments. Some of the factors such as delayed delivery of goods by customers and overdue investment in large-scale projects have caused slow turnover of corporate funds, further increasing the company's operating costs and operational risks.
As for the trend forecast of the heavy machine industry, the Association believes that the current downward pressure on the domestic economy has not yet been lifted, but a new round of development focused on energy saving, emission reduction and efficiency improvement is already in development and will be affected by market shrinkage. The industry has seen a tightening trend for three consecutive years. Given the lagging characteristics of the heavy machine industry, it is expected that the basic situation of the heavy machine industry this year will be difficult to significantly improve. Compared with last year, the expected growth rate will decline by 1-2%.
From the perspective of the construction machinery industry, in the first two months of this year, the sales volume of main products of construction machinery continued to decline, the market demand showed a weak consolidation, and the upward momentum was insufficient. The sales volume of the 9 mainframes saw a large drop. Leading products are mainly excavators, loaders, bulldozers, and truck cranes. It is expected that the downward trend in March will continue.
The person in charge of the Construction Machinery Industry Association stated that, from the investigation, it still continued last year's decline in income, rising costs, increased receivables, difficulty in liquidity, and a drop in profits. What is different from the past is that the decline in operating income has increased, the increase in financial expenses and interest expenses has been high, and the decline in profits has continued to widen.
The association expects that the market for construction machinery in the first half of the year will continue to decline significantly compared with last year. It is expected that there will not be a significant decline for the whole year, or it will be the same as last year or a slight increase.
Cai Weici predicted that the second quarter decline in the machinery industry will slow down, and it may also pick up. Given that the country’s steady growth measures will gradually take effect and the industry’s ability to respond to the crisis has improved, it is expected that the industry will recover steadily after March. The growth rate of the value-added of machinery industry in the whole year will still be around 8%, the growth rate of main business income will be 8%, the profit rate will be around 10%, and the foreign exchange earned through exports will be 6%.

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