Provide wire and cable future market forecasts

Provide wire and cable future market forecasts

Looking at the macroeconomic situation in 2010, it will still benefit the electrical industry as a whole. At the same time, because the foundation for China’s economic recovery is still not solid and there are many kinds of uncertainties at home and abroad, it is destined that the road to development in 2010 will be uneven.

According to relevant plans, in 2010, the total economic output of the electrical industry, such as total industrial output value and sales output, is expected to exceed the threshold of 3 trillion yuan, which is an increase of approximately 12%. The total profit will reach 170 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 10% over the same period of last year. Among them, the output of power generation equipment is still expected to reach more than 100 million kilowatts; the output of transformers in power transmission and transformation equipment will exceed 1.4 billion kVA, and it is expected to increase by 10%. In order to promote the sound and rapid development of the electrical industry, several major issues affecting the economic operation of the entire industry need to arouse the attention of the industry and be resolved as soon as possible.

I. The overcapacity industry is still disorderly development The wire and cable industry has already shown excessive development. Since last year, some local governments have been developing new products or developing high-end technologies under the policy of “expanding domestic demand, ensuring growth, and maintaining stability”. Under the name of the product, huge amounts of money are still invested, new factories are built, production lines and equipment are purchased from abroad, and production capacity is increased by several hundred million yuan, more than one billion yuan, or even two billion yuan, forming a new wave of repeated investment booms. Regardless of whether the nature of the enterprise is state-owned or private, most of the funds invested are loans from the National Bank. At present, these investment behaviors have made the cable industry, which has already been over-developed and has a serious overcapacity, even more problematic and aggravated. Take the high-voltage cross-linked cable vertical production line (VCV) as an example. There were 32 domestic production (only one of which was domestically produced) by the end of 2008, 28 of which had been purchased and planned to be put into production in 2009 and later, totaling 60. Article. This kind of blind investment that ignores actual conditions not only wastes a lot of financial resources, but also greatly jeopardizes the healthy and orderly development of the industry. The completion of these production lines will further idle the domestic VCV production line, which has only 40% of equipment utilization. At the same time, due to overcapacity, the vicious competition such as cutting corners, shoddy goods, low-price competitive marketing and even counterfeiting will become more serious.

Second, there are still restrictions on the behavior of domestically produced equipment. At present, there are restrictions on domestic equipment in some areas and parts of China, which seriously impedes the process of localization of major equipment. In order to reduce the impact of the financial crisis on China’s economy, the state has introduced a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote stable and rapid economic growth. Nine ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued “On the Implementation of Expanding Domestic Demands, Promoting Economic Growth, and Deploying Further Strengthening of Project Construction Bidding. Opinions on Bid Supervision Work (Development and Reform Regulations [2009] No. 1361). The document clearly stipulates that it is forbidden to restrict the use of domestically-made equipment by setting discriminatory provisions, further strengthen the supervision and management of bids and tenders for construction projects, standardize the order of bidding and tendering markets, and increase the efficiency of investment.

At present, the restriction of domestically produced equipment and the adoption of discriminatory provisions in the domestic project construction bid have been largely contained, and it has played a positive role in the development of national industries, in the promotion of industrial restructuring and in the upgrading of products. However, in some places and in some areas, the Central Government’s policies have been ignored, even in the top wind, and discriminatory provisions have been used in major project construction tenders to restrict domestic equipment. For example, in a bidding document for a city rail transit line project (400V switchgear procurement project), it appears that “the circuit breakers, contactors and other components in the bidding product must have two or more subway use performances, among which the main components ( Circuit breakers and contactors must be discriminatory provisions of internationally renowned brands and restrict the participation of domestically produced equipment in bidding activities. The "major components (circuit breakers, contactors)" mentioned in the bidding documents have already been produced by many domestic enterprises. It is widely used in aerospace, airport, subway, power, machinery, petrochemical, metallurgy, textile and many other industries and national key projects, such as Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant, Zhongnanhai Substation, Oriental Pearl TV Tower, etc., and it is in good condition. With the characteristics of high stability and high cost performance, it can be said that the current domestic 400V switchgear circuit breakers and contactors have been able to fully meet the technical requirements of a city's rail transit project.Since the 1990s, the cable industry has been hailed as the “neural” city. "" and "blood vessels", shouldering the support of the national economy pillar industry for all walks of life The functions have grown to be the second largest industry in China's machinery industry, second only to automobiles, but the output value of the cable industry in China still accounts for only about 15% of the world cable industry. There is still much room for development and gaps in this huge market. In the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, according to the annual growth rate of the national economy of 7% to 8%, the development speed of the wire and cable industry will be equal to that of the national economy, which is expected to be about 8.5%. Look, the entire wire and cable industry in China is experiencing a period of rapid growth, rapid development, and the emergence of problems, especially in the mid- and low-end wire and cable products market where technology added value is relatively low. The situation is quite common.

Industry insiders believe that the underlying causes of low-cost product competition are blind investment, overcapacity, and oversupply. On the one hand, due to the low investment threshold, a large number of companies have flooded into the industry, causing companies in the industry to “overuse too much”. The production capacity of these industries exceeded the market demand and there was a serious surplus. On the other hand, due to the low “threshold”, not only is the degree of concentration in the industry getting lower and lower, but also a part of “workshop companies” that do not necessarily have the necessary means of production capacity, quality control and testing can be incorporated into the industry and become Low-quality and shoddy products, shoddy work, cutting corners and materials, shoddy products and the origin of cable products, and by means of lowering the sales price and other means to disrupt the market competition order, exacerbated the disorderly competition in the industry.

At present, although China's wire and cable industry has gone through more than 20 years and has made considerable progress, it still does not go beyond the big, but not the strongest, and there is still a big gap compared with the world-class companies. There are many problems such as low industrial concentration, large number of enterprises, small scale, insufficient scale economy, insufficient independent innovation capacity, and outstanding product structural contradictions. Despite these problems, China's wire and cable industry is facing new opportunities for take-off, that is, opportunities to quickly improve its core competitiveness in development. With the continuous changes in the world economic structure, China's cable industry is bound to face restructuring and reshuffle. In particular, in recent years, China's economic development has faced bottlenecks in energy and power shortages. The country has continuously increased its investment in electricity, and this industry has entered a period of rapid development. In order to implement the decision-making and deployment of the central government to increase infrastructure construction and stimulate domestic demand, the State Grid Corporation of China plans to increase investment and accelerate the pace of power grid construction. It is expected that the investment scale will exceed 1 trillion yuan in the next 2 to 3 years, including the urban rural network and the The network construction and transformation investment was 790 billion yuan. The construction scale is 110 thousand (66) kV and above transmission lines of 260,000 kilometers and the transformation capacity is 1.35 billion kVA.

The power transmission and transformation primary equipment industry of the power cable manufacturing industry has a relatively low technological content, low barriers to entry, and the user is mainly the State Grid Corporation. This market pattern results in the partial loss of pricing capability of many equipment suppliers and the rapid development of the entire industry. After the expansion, it faces the problem of high raw material prices. Competition in the industry has become increasingly fierce, and profits have shown a downward trend. The secondary power transmission equipment industry is an industry with relatively small cyclical fluctuations. It involves high-tech fields and has high technical barriers. Big company monopoly. In view of the prospects for the development of China's power industry, the wire and cable manufacturing industry as its sub-sector continues to have better room for development under the promotion of the environment.

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