Soda Ash: Export Volume Decreased Market Pattern Hasn’t Changed

Soda Ash: Export Volume Decreased Market Pattern Hasn’t Changed

——Effects of Export Tax Rebate Policy Adjustment on Some Chemical Products Market (Part 4)
China is the world's largest producer and consumer of soda ash. In 2007, China's soda ash production capacity will reach 19 million tons, and its output will reach 17.5 million tons, accounting for approximately 33% of world production. China's soda ash exports account for 10% of the total output. Soda ash exports play a crucial role in stabilizing the domestic soda ash market. As the export tax rebate rate for soda ash will fall from 11% to zero in the second half of the year, it will likely have a certain impact on the domestic soda ash market in the short term, leading to higher prices. However, this impact will not be catastrophic, but it will probably help China's soda ash industry to further increase its scale, intensiveness, and efficiency, so that the market and industry can further realize healthy development.
Export volume has dropped Since the beginning of this century, the development of China's soda ash industry has entered an upwards channel and the average increase rate has remained above 10%. An important reason for the stable development of the soda industry in China is the improvement of the international market. The continuously increasing export volume plays an important role in diverting the domestic market's sales share and reducing market pressure. In recent years, the country began to restrict the export of resource-based, high-energy-consuming, and high-pollution products. In 2005, the export tax rebate for soda ash was adjusted from 17% to 13%, and in 2006 it was again reduced to 11%. Currently, the zero tax rebate rate is being implemented.
In the period from January to May when the export tax rebate rate did not change, the cumulative total of China's soda ash exports was 735,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, accounting for 10.6% of the total domestic output of 6.927 million tons, and the average export price was US$158.6/ton. It is expected that the export volume of soda ash in China will remain the same as last year, and the increase will tend to decrease. The decrease in export growth rate indicates that the domestic demand for soda ash increases and the ability of the domestic market to digest increases, greatly reducing the dependence of soda ash on exports, indicating that the domestic soda ash market is moving in a healthy direction, and the soda ash industry remains relatively stable. .
International competitiveness is weakened China and the United States are the two major soda ash exporters on the international market. The Chinese soda ash export market is dominated by Asia and the surrounding Asia. The United States soda ash is mainly based on trona, with relatively low production costs. Exports have a strong competitive advantage, and 30% of output is used to export to the international market. The international crude oil price has increased from US$20/barrel to the current high of US$70/barrel, which has greatly increased the production and transportation costs of soda ash in the United States, which has significantly reduced its competitiveness in the Asian market. This has created a favorable international export of soda ash in China. Trade competition environment. In the case that the zero tax rebate rate will increase the export price of soda ash in China by 150 yuan per ton, either the international market accepts price increases, or domestic soda ash producers can absorb the price increase factor on their own. From the perspective of soda ash export orders in July, the export volume of all companies has declined to varying degrees, and domestic soda ash exports will face greater pressure in the second half of the year.
However, the reduction in the volume of soda ash exports in China in the short term will break the current balance between supply and demand in the international market, stimulate the price increase in the international soda ash market, and move in the direction favoring China’s exports of soda ash. In addition, the continuous rise in international crude oil prices will support and promote soda production costs and shipping costs in the United States and other western countries, and curb the flow of soda ash to Asian markets. At the same time, Asia is currently the world’s fastest-growing and most active place for economic development. Strong regional economic development will continue to increase demand for soda ash, which will be beneficial to the development of China’s soda ash industry and the provision of a favorable export environment.
The overall market is still good The good development of the soda ash industry is mainly due to strong domestic market demand, improvement of the international trading environment, rising international energy prices, increase of product competitiveness, and correct planning and management of the country’s orderly development of the soda industry. . In the international market, the good quality and competitive prices of China's soda ash products have made China's soda ash increase in the international market's trade share. The increasing demand in the international market has effectively promoted the steady development of domestic soda ash industry. In 2006, China's production of soda ash was 15.9 million tons, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year; exports were 1.775 million tons, an increase of 4% year-on-year; exports accounted for 11.3% of the country's total domestic soda ash; average soda ash export prices were US$157.5 per ton. The decrease was 3.1% year-on-year, which made the export of soda ash more competitive. However, judging from the current profitability of soda ash and the digestibility of the domestic market, the cancellation of export tax rebates will affect the market in the short term, but in the long term, the impact of energy conservation, consumption reduction, and cost reduction will increase market competitiveness. serious.
In 2007, China's soda ash production capacity will probably reach 20 million tons. In 2007, the cost of domestic raw materials will further increase, energy prices will also increase, and logistics costs will also increase. This will increase the production cost of soda ash and generate the soda ash market. influences. In general, the soda ash market is still improving, the market supply and demand are in balance, the domestic market will maintain a high growth in demand, and the international market will also show a relatively high growth trend. Reducing the export tax rebate rate to zero will make the price of soda ash behave as before. High and low trend.

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