· Radical or conservative? Car companies have released their sales targets for 2015

The annual car target is the Spring Festival of the Year of the Sheep. It will be until the end of February. This will give domestic auto companies enough time to discuss the market and set targets for production and sales this year. Judging from the current public data, each car company is cautious about sales expectations, conservative, and more optimistic, mostly concentrated at about 10%, which is completely different from the foreign “seeing failure” Chinese auto market. Different from previous years, this year's local brands have become "protagonists", and they have set very challenging goals. If they are realized smoothly, the increase will be extremely amazing. It is not surprising that local car companies are already at the bottom of the abyss. As long as they work hard, even if they are a little bit, they will make progress.
Local brands are worth looking forward to last year, the performance of local brands is not satisfactory, except for Chang'an, Guangzhou Automobile, Chery, popular, and so on, there are not many "scholars", no company has completed the production and sales targets set at the beginning of the year. In the first three quarters of last year, the market share of local brands was “nine consecutive declines”, and in the last quarter of the previous year, the market share was even more unprecedented than the “12 consecutive declines”. Forced to helpless, in the middle of last year, some local car companies lowered their targets. By the end of the year, there was a more embarrassing situation: the target after the downgrade was not successfully achieved.
Fortunately, in 2014, local car companies also hoped. I hope that from the SUV field, the new SUV products launched by local car companies are highly recognized by the market. Local car companies can stop the "12 consecutive landings", which is dependent on SUV. Last year, the local SUV was only a small test, and this year will be fully exerted. Local car companies agree that SUVs can stop falling and lead car companies out of the bottom. Jianghuai's target for this year is 300,000 units, an increase of 53.8%. The lost market share of cars has been regained by SUVs. The sales of S3 in 2014 gave Jianghuai unparalleled confidence and confidence. Guangzhou Automobile Chuanbao guaranteed 160,000 vehicles this year, and strived for 200,000 vehicles, an increase of 36.9%~71.2%. Its trust is also an SUV. At the North American Auto Show in January, the GS4 world premiere.
Chery's 400,000 production and sales targets are only for the domestic market, and with the overseas market, the increase will be even more alarming. Great Wall Motor has continued to challenge the “800,000 vehicles”. In 2014, Great Wall Motors continued to grow steadily in SUVs, and the losses were concentrated in the sedan sector. Among the many local car companies, the most conservative is Changan Automobile, which has the best performance in 2014, increasing from only 71.03 million to 750,000. Sun Xiaodong left the company, and Geely Automobile was once caught in a turbulent personnel turmoil. Geely did not become conservative, and the target increased from 410,000 to 450,000. To the deadline, BYD has yet to announce its production and sales targets for this year. Five years ago, BYD once said that it will become China's number one in 2015. In the past five years, BYD has emphasized more than once that this goal has not changed - this is also the reason why its production and sales targets have been delayed this year. However, BYD has announced its new car plan this year, in addition to Tang, there will be 13 models or new models.
The growth rate of luxury car companies did not decrease in 2014. The luxury car enterprises frustrated constantly, anti-monopoly investigations, the rebellion of dealers and the anti-corruption of the car industry, which made them squandered. Even so, in 2014, luxury brands continued to lead the Chinese auto market in 2014, with an average increase of about twice the industry average. The top three teams of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz continued to “slap the ground” and push new cars to expand production capacity. The second-line Jaguar Land Rover, Infiniti, and Volvo also achieved outstanding results. This shows that consumption upgrading has become the mainstream of the society, making cheap cars can barely figure out a picture of food and clothing, luxury cars and high-end cars are the way out.
Mercedes-Benz's production and sales target for 2015 is 300,000 units, which is the sales target planned three years ago. Obviously, the Mercedes-Benz headquarters still underestimates the hearts of Chinese local tyrants to buy luxury cars. In 2014, Mercedes-Benz sales in China reached 282,000 units, only one step away from 300,000 units. 300,000 vehicles are obviously outdated, 350,000 vehicles and even more, in line with the current state of Mercedes-Benz, and can keep up with the pace of Audi and BMW in China. Audi's production and sales target this year is 700,000 units, which is also the goal of planning three years ago. Audi recorded a record 575,000 units in 2014, but it is still far from 700,000 units, and it needs to increase by 125,000 units. Both pressure and challenges are there. BMW's target this year is "500,000 vehicles", a pure increase of 45,000 vehicles. This is obviously a conservative production and sales target. According to sources, BMW has asked for "challenge 550,000 vehicles."
Jaguar Land Rover sold 122,000 units in China in 2014 and Lexus 76,000 units. Out of caution, the two luxury car companies have not announced their targets in China this year. Both brands have ushered in an unprecedented product year in 2015. Jaguar Land Rover has 12 new cars released worldwide, and Lexus will launch 8 new cars in China. The sales volume is directly proportional to the number of new cars. This is a universal truth. The two luxury car companies are expected to perform this year, especially the Jaguar Land Rover, which has just been implemented in China.
Japanese car slightly increased the offensive rhythm in January. Guangzhou Daily News (Reporter Li Guangman) According to Toyota's latest data, Toyota's sales in China in January increased 10.6% year-on-year to 94,700 units. This increase was lower than 15.3% in December 2014. In 2014, Toyota's sales in China climbed 12.5% ​​year-on-year to 1.03 million units. In 2015, it plans to sell 1.1 million vehicles in China, completing the plan that was not completed in 2014. This means that Toyota's sales in China in 2015 increased by only 6.8% year-on-year.
According to data released by Nissan Motor Co., the sales volume in China in January was 116,400 units, a year-on-year increase of more than 20% to 22%, and the company’s sales in China for six months fell. In November 2014, Nissan’s sales in China fell by 11.8% year-on-year; in December, it fell by 9.1%. In view of the current performance in China, Nissan raised its sales forecast for China in 2015, reaching 1.3 million units, which will increase by 6% compared with 2014. In 2014, Nissan's retail sales in China were 1,221,598 units. Despite the increase in sales last year, Nissan failed to achieve its sales target of 1.4 million vehicles in China.
In January 2015, Honda’s sales in China fell again, dropping 6.6% year-on-year to 59,000 units. Guangqi Honda relied on Binzhi's year-on-year growth of 11.6%, while Dongfeng Honda, despite its X-RV, still landslide by more than 20%. The best-selling models, the Lingpai and CR-V, plunged 55% and 42% respectively last month, while the Fit jumped 3 times. According to data released by Honda Motor Co., in January 2015, its domestically produced vehicle sales volume (sold out) in the Chinese market was 59,065 units, down 6.6% year-on-year.
Among Honda's two joint venture subsidiaries in China, Guangqi Honda began to decline in sales from October 2014. It has increased for the fourth consecutive month from the previous month, from 11.834 to 34,406. Dongfeng Honda's sales in January fell by 23.9% from the year of 32,403 vehicles to 24,659 units.
According to the latest data from Mazda, in 2015, the company's sales in China fell by 11.7% year-on-year to reach 24,500 units. In November and December 2014, Mazda’s sales in China both fell, so it continued to decline for three months. Mazda’s sales performance in the two major sales networks in China is significantly different. FAW Mazda's domestic sales in January was 8,640 units, while in January 2014, sales were 17,220 units, a year-on-year decline of 49.8%. Changan Mazda sold 15,598 vehicles in January 2015, a year-on-year increase of 50.4%.
Mazda (China) Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. CEO Duan Xuanyan pointed out that despite the decline in sales, the three main models equipped with Chuangchi Blue Sky Technology maintained a good sales momentum, accounting for 75% of the overall sales.
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New Year's first car inventory over the warning line February 2, China Automobile Dealers Association issued "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index Survey." The data shows that the inventory warning index for January 2015 was 56.3%, still above the 50% warning level and up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The China Automobile Dealers Association said that at the end of last year, the car companies sprinted the annual task volume, and the market demand fell in January this year, which was the two factors that caused the inventory to rise.
In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the inventory warning index will still operate at a high level. Analysts believe that the inventory warning index will gradually decline after entering March. In terms of efficiency, the results of the satisfaction survey of the China Automobile Dealers Association show that only 30% of dealers are profitable, and about 40% of dealers stick to the break-even line, and about 30% of dealers lose money. The two traditional areas of new car sales and after-sales service are still the main battlefields for dealer competition in 2015. Although the auto e-commerce is novel, most dealers are still waiting to see.
The third round of environmental protection and energy conservation subsidies starting from September 30, 2013 will be closed by the end of December 2015. It is expected that some car owners will hope to obtain the 3,000 yuan subsidy and purchase cars early in the fourth quarter of this year. In addition, a series of related policies and measures will directly affect the automobile market in 2015. Including policies to support the development of new energy vehicles, special activities to implement the provisions of the automobile three guarantees, standards for implementing fuel consumption of passenger vehicles, anti-monopoly investigations, revision of automobile sales management measures, cancellation of automobile dealers and dealer registration systems Guides for transformation and upgrading of the automobile maintenance industry, and restrictions on purchases in some cities.
After the mainstream car companies have radically won the "fourth dispute" with Dongfeng Nissan, Beijing Hyundai is seeking further possibilities. Unfortunately, looking up, the gap is a bit big. Both North and South Volkswagen and Shanghai GM sold more than 1.7 million units in 2014, which is difficult to access in a short time. Beijing Hyundai decided to stop “resting”, with a target of 1.16 million in 2015, compared with 1.12 million in 2014, only 40,000. Sometimes, rest is to catch up faster. This year, Beijing Hyundai will fully manage its internal relations.
If there is no bad Sino-Japanese relationship, Dongfeng Nissan will break through 1 million vehicles before Beijing Hyundai. In 2014, the impact of 1 million vehicles failed, and Dongfeng Nissan continued to challenge this goal this year. Its preparation for the killer is a new hacker. In 2014, the hackers at the end of the life of this generation had an annual sales volume of 86,000, which made Dongfeng Nissan happy and hoped for new hackers. After the launch of the new hacker, Dongfeng Nissan has three models in the SUV field, including Qijun, hacker and Qichen T70.
In the first camp, both Shanghai Volkswagen and Shanghai GM have set a production and sales target of “protecting the bottom of 1.9 million units and impacting 2 million units”, and “going to attack and retreat”. This year is the year of Shanghai Volkswagen products, with 6 new cars released. Shanghai GM's development this year is mainly stable, and the new Yinglang is ready to go. FAW-Volkswagen changed the radical style of the previous two years, and unexpectedly set the target at 1.85 million. If the top three targets ended this year, FAW-Volkswagen will hand over the champion throne, and return to the "third" in one breath. ". SAIC-GM-Wuling will challenge 1.9 million vehicles, which is not conservative or radical.
Among the joint venture car companies, the most radical is Changan Ford, which challenges 1 million vehicles and the net increase is close to 200,000, an increase of nearly 25%. After gradually solving the capacity problem, Changan Mazda will challenge 150,000 vehicles this year, surpassing FAW Mazda. Shenlong Automobile will target 800,000 vehicles this year, Dongfeng Peugeot will bear 450,000 vehicles, and Dongfeng Citroen will have 350,000 vehicles. This year, PSA has changed from a quantitative change to a qualitative change in China. The low-key Dongfeng Yueda Kia completed 666,000 vehicles in 2014, and this year it challenged an astonishing 750,000 vehicles, with a net increase of nearly 100,000 units. Guangqi Honda completed 480,000 vehicles in 2014. For 2015, the target is “not less than the growth rate of the industry”, which is about 520,000 according to the 8% increase. Holding the Odyssey, Binzhi, Fit, Accord and other good cards, Guangqi Honda's performance in 2015 should be more than 520,000.
The macro economy maintained 7% this year.
Car market target 8%
From the analysis of the production and sales targets announced by the current car companies, the radicalization is more conservative than the conservative, and the optimism is more than the caution. In the first line of the automobile market, the auto companies will be more accurate and reliable than the onlookers, and they have never been biased. Auto companies are optimistic about this year's auto market, and some of the bottom line comes from the domestic macroeconomic growth this year. Forecasts from several research institutes indicate that China's economic growth rate will remain at around 7% in 2015, although it is the lowest speed in years, but it is still more than the world's major countries. In 2015, the US economy is expected to grow at a rate of 3%. The EU has stabilized and Japan has grown.
At the end of January, the China Automobile Association released the 2015 market forecast: China's auto sales for the year was 25.13 million, of which domestic sales were 24.27 million and the export volume was 860,000, a growth rate of 7%. Passenger car segments, MPVs and SUVs have become the main drivers of growth. SUV sales were around 5.1 million units, a 25% increase. MPV is expected to sell 2.58 million units, a growth rate of 35%. The car is expected to sell about 12.51 million units, a growth rate of 1%. In the comprehensive passenger car market segmentation model specific forecast, the passenger car sales in 2015 was about 21.25 million, a growth rate of 8%.
Commercial vehicles have been greatly affected by the macro economy. In addition to the decline in economic indicators such as consumer investment, road freight and passenger traffic also showed a downward trend, resulting in weak market demand. Commercial vehicles are expected to be in a state of micro growth in the coming period. It is estimated that the sales volume of trucks in 2015 will be around 3.23 million, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The sales volume of passenger cars is expected to be around 650,000, with a growth rate of 6.5%, and the growth rate will fall. In 2015, the sales volume of commercial vehicles was about 3.88 million, with a growth rate of 2.4%.
In 2014, the used car trade was 6,503,900 Guangzhou Daily News (Reporter Zhou Weili) On January 27, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the 2014 second-hand car market transaction. In 2014, a total of 6,052,900 used cars were sold throughout the year, an increase of 16.33% year-on-year. The transaction volume was 367.565 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.03%. Among them, the basic passenger car transactions were 3.5314 million, an increase of 15.25% year-on-year.
In terms of the nature of transactions, the “direct transaction ratio” was as high as 77.36%, and the entrusted transaction only accounted for 21.92%. "3~10 years" has the highest proportion of used cars, accounting for 70.13%, "2" or less within 2 years, and "7.2%" is only 7.29%. In terms of regions, the Central South and East China regions accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 1,772,500 and 1,572,200 respectively. Guangdong used car trading ranked first in many provinces, Sichuan second, Beijing third, Shandong fourth. The fifth to tenth are Henan, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Chongqing, and Shaanxi.

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