“Electricity shortage” strikes the bearing company and is not willing to take orders

After the National Development and Reform Commission warned that the power supply situation was not optimistic this year, although it was a non-electricity peak, power supply shortages continued throughout the country. With the tight supply of electricity, the strange phenomenon of overhauling and stopping the supply of power to large-scale thermal power plants in various regions has continued to develop. Recently, media reports said: "The National Development and Reform Commission may hold a meeting on May 13 to discuss the electricity prices in five provinces, such as Hunan and Anhui, to resolve the increasingly serious power shortage in these provinces." In the current situation of increasing inflationary pressures The adjustment of electricity prices has attracted much attention.

Yu Yanshan, deputy director of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission Office, said that if the situation of incoming water is not good and the sustained losses of thermal power companies are not changed, the situation of power cuts and power cuts occurring in large areas during summer peaks is very likely to occur.

The helplessness and perplexity of electricity consumption has made many foreign companies not willing to place orders. “Without the guarantee of electricity, today’s order will be the future compensation claim. What are we going to do?” said one entrepreneur who had just returned from the Canton Fair. “Originally I could order more orders.”

In order to avoid blackouts caused by excessive power consumption in the past, and ensure that production can be carried out as planned, in the first floor workshop of a company specializing in the production of low-noise deep groove ball bearings at the Kundun Street in Cixi, Ningbo, production equipment has only been used. 40%, the remaining 60% is in a "rest" state. The head of the company, Huo Yunjun, pointed to a high-powered diesel engine in the northwest corner of the plant. He said that only 40% of the equipment was moved, mainly due to the diesel generators purchased. At present, the industrial power consumption is 0.9 yuan/kWh, but the diesel power generation cost is 1.5 yuan/kWh -2 yuan/kWh. In addition, the power generated by the diesel engine is extremely unstable and can only be used for the production of some primary products and cannot be used for finishing.

It seems that the impact of “power cuts” has affected the upstream and downstream industries of the companies involved.

In contrast, the sudden loss of power to some chemical fiber companies is more serious than other types of enterprises. Chemical fiber companies are relatively long production lines, once a sudden power outage, the entire line of raw materials will be scrapped, one-time loss may exceed several hundred thousand dollars.

It is worth noting that the current large-scale power outage in this round is not due to insufficient power production capacity, but rather caused by the huge losses of thermal power companies. Under the circumstance that the price of electricity cannot be adjusted upwards, the prices of fuel and coal continue to rise, and thermal power companies fall into the dilemma of more production losses.

In recent years, the interests of the upstream and downstream companies in the power industry have been seriously out of balance. On the one hand, the profits of coal companies are leaping forward. On the other hand, it is the industry-wide loss of the power generation industry. The "2010 Electricity Regulatory Report" issued in early May pointed out that since 2008, the five largest power generation groups (Hua Neng, Datang, Huadian, Guodian, and China Power Investment) have accumulated thermal losses for more than 8.5 billion yuan for three consecutive years. The loss amounted to more than 60 billion yuan.

UBS Securities recently issued a report saying that the recent shortage of power in some parts of China will not significantly curb the overall economic growth this year, but it may change the trend of quarterly economic growth and increase China’s imports of diesel and fuel oil in the coming months. .

UBS Securities believes that China's severe national power shortage this year and the risk of a significant decline in economic growth is small, and the forecast for China's economic growth in 2011 is still 9.3%. The report believes that the current power shortage is caused by multiple factors such as China's energy price control, regional power imbalances, strong electricity demand, and reduced hydropower generation.

U.S. Securities economist Hu Zhipeng said in the report that the power supply problem may change the Chinese economy's growth during the year. From the perspective of power shortages limiting the growth of industrial production, the economic growth rate in the second quarter may slow down. “As the power shortage problem is resolved later this year, coupled with the recovery of hydroelectric power generation and the increase in coal and electricity prices sufficient to boost its supply, the release of demand for heavy industrial products that was previously suppressed may increase the economy in the third and fourth quarters. Increase speed."