Our Cabinet & Table Products is good in quality and competitive in price. We are manufacturer and supplier Cabinet & Table Products following your specific requirement. We are looking forward to your E-mail and establishing cooperative relationship with you! We would provide professional Laboratory Tester with good services for you! Hospital Cabinet,Hospital Table,Hospital Bedside Cabinet,Hospital Bedside Table Ningbo Cland Medical Instruments Co., Ltd. , https://www.cland-med.com
It has been generally believed by market participants that China’s domestic metal consumption can offset the impact of the weak demand from the export industry. However, this view seems to be too optimistic. Although the Chinese government has adopted a fiscal stimulus plan as many people have expected, it will not be possible to resume demand growth until the middle of the year to the end of 2009. At the same time, China’s economic recovery may have to rely on a rebound in the global economy.
Adam Rowley, an analyst with Macquarie Research in London, said that China has always been the hope of the metal industry, but China's metal demand is not expected to show significant growth in the short term; China's demand growth has slowed down significantly, and some industries may even appear Shrink.
China's gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 9% in the third quarter, hitting a five-year low, and its growth rate fell more than expected. Some companies temporarily suspend production due to the Olympic Games and the demand for export commodities is two important reasons. However, analysts generally believe that the tightening policies adopted by the Chinese government in 2007 to resolve the overheating of the market and the tightened mortgage rules have been overkill.
The Chinese government is currently turning its direction, turning to loosening credit policies and stimulating the development of the domestic real estate industry. Macquarie expects that due to the slowdown in real estate development, the scale of completion may be reduced by 30% next year, which will have a serious impact on metal prices.
Macquarie data shows that over the past seven years, 99% of the global metal demand increase has come from China, with 87% increase in zinc demand, 79% increase in nickel demand, 60% increase in aluminum demand, and 59% increase in steel demand. % comes from China. China’s metal demand mainly comes from the construction industry: steel consumption in the construction industry accounts for 50% of the country’s steel consumption, and consumption of copper, nickel and aluminum accounts for 20%, 35% and 40% of the total national consumption.
The slowdown in the growth of the real estate market is consistent with the declining trend of China's export industry; China's export industry itself also has a large demand for copper, zinc and aluminum.
Huw Roberts, analyst at CHR Metals (CHRM etals), said that expenditure on infrastructure construction is a bright spot in the future; infrastructure spending will continue to grow steadily, and the auto industry may have strong growth, but the increase is relatively low. . CHRMetals is a consulting company focused on the lead and zinc industry and has offices in London and China.
In addition, China Daily reported last Saturday that in order to promote economic growth, China has approved a railway construction project worth 2 trillion yuan (US$290.2 billion).
However, Robles said that China's industrial added value (from January to September this year, the industrial added value increased by 15.2% over the same period last year) may decline significantly. He added that it is expected that the increase in industrial added value will be halved this year.
Joel Crane, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, predicts that the decline in China's export and real estate industries will lead to a significant slowdown in metal demand growth in 2009. Metal demand is expected to rebound after the Chinese export market recovers in 2010.
Cray said that the growth of personal consumption and infrastructure construction in China is not enough to make up for the decline in the real estate and export industries; a full recovery of the global economy is a necessary condition.
According to a person in charge of metal trading at an international commodity brokerage firm in Shanghai, the outlook for the copper market in China (a nearly 60% drop in copper prices since July) is worrisome; it is expected that the fundamentals of future demand will be weak and supply will be sufficient. Many producers hope to cut inventory in the fourth quarter.
Jasmine Qi, an iron and steel industry consultant at CRU in Beijing, said that similar problems may also pose an impact on the nickel market because stainless steel production (68% nickel is used to produce stainless steel) has a poor prospect. According to data from the China Iron & Steel Association, China’s four steel companies, which accounted for 16% of the country’s total production last year, decided to cut output by 20% this month, while China’s top two steel companies plan to further reduce production.
Qi said that the decline in stainless steel prices may continue at least until the first quarter of 2009. More and more steel companies are planning to cut production, but it is still unknown whether this action can curb the decline in stainless steel prices.
The rebound in steel prices is hopeful. Stephen Green and Tai Hui, the economists of Standard Chartered, pointed out that the latest available data shows that in 2006, the central and local governments' expenditures for capital construction and urban development accounted for only 6 percent of the total investment. %, a slight decrease from the level of slightly less than 8% in 2005.
In a report released on Monday, two economists said that even if the capital construction and urban development expenditures are doubled, doubled or even tripled, they will still be insignificant compared with the overall GDP data.
Standard Chartered Bank expects China's GDP growth in 2009 will reach 7.9%. Economists generally expect GDP growth in 2009 to be approximately 8.7% to 9.0%.
The bank expects that the new fiscal plan implemented by the Chinese government will only lead to an additional 1 percentage point increase in GDP in 2009, and it is expected that net exports, investment, and consumption will all contribute to GDP.
Standard Chartered Bank said it should be reiterated that the Chinese Ministry of Finance is not China's savior.
China's economic decline or delays the recovery of metal prices
China's domestic metal-intensive industries show signs of slowing down, which may delay the recovery of base metals and steel prices; at present, some metal prices have fallen to levels close to or below average production costs.