From the disclosure of the performance forecast, the performance of the tire industry in the third quarter has almost no bright spots. Although the downstream auto sales are booming, and the tire industry is booming, but analysts point out that natural rubber prices remain high, the profit margin of the tire industry is compressed very small, and the fourth quarter is the growth period of natural rubber, rubber prices are hopelessly reduced The decline in the gross profit margin of the tires in 2010 is a foregone conclusion. Cost pressure is difficult to completely transfer As of September 29, 2010, among the 8 companies in the tire industry classified by Shenwan Industry Group, a total of 4 tire companies announced the third quarter performance forecast, including ST Huanghai’s loss, and Qingdao Double Star’s net profit decreased by 50%-100% year-on-year. The net profit of Black Cat shares increased or decreased by -15% -15% year-on-year, only Long Xing Chemical's net profit increased by 30% - 50%. Guoxin Securities analyst said that although the tire industry's performance forecast has not yet fully disclosed, but the first three quarters of decline in gross margins is a common problem faced by the industry. The major reason for the decline in gross profit margin is the increase in the price of natural rubber, the main raw material for production. In 2008, the price of natural rubber was only 15,000 yuan/ton in the low position, and it has now risen to 26,000 yuan/ton. Due to the fierce competition in the tire industry, product price lags behind natural rubber prices, and the price increase rate is also smaller than the price increase rate. Analysts believe that the performance of all-steel tires is better than that of semi-steel tires. Therefore, the performance of the tires and the Aeolus shares, which account for a relatively large number of steel tires, should be relatively better, and the performance of the two companies has always been relatively stable. Jiatong's semi-steel tires are relatively large, but due to the relatively high market recognition of the brand, its performance should be better than Qingdao Double Star. Natural rubber prices will remain high and volatile As for the trend of the tire industry in the later period, it still depends on the “face†of natural rubber. At present, there is no sign that the price of rubber has been lowered. The price of rubber is expected to remain high at a high level. In addition to cost pressures, an industry insider is even worried that with the transformation of China's economy, the demand of the tire industry in the late stage may face problems. From January to August, China’s total import volume of natural rubber was the same as that of the same period of 2009, while the cumulative increase of domestic automobile sales was 39.35%. In August, automobile sales reached the peak season ahead of schedule, which led to a small domestic natural rubber inventory, which helped the sky The price of plastic. The stock of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is less than 30,000 tons, and Japan, which is also the main consumer of natural rubber, is facing a similar situation. However, it is unlikely that the price of rubber will continue to rise. In April 2010, the price of all latex was 25,500-25,800 yuan per ton, while the current price of domestic latex remained at around 26,000 yuan per ton. If the stock market has been rising, it is not ruled that the country will continue to throw away storage, stable days. Plastic price. At that time, there will be a greater impact on the market and a short-term plunge. From the perspective of global auto sales, the shortage of natural rubber in the international market will also be eased. The growth of the auto market in developing countries in the first half of the year made up for the decline in the auto market in Europe and the United States, which became an important reason for the price increase of natural rubber. Since July and August, European and American countries have experienced a deeper decline in automobile sales. Europe's average monthly sales fell from 1,300,000 units in previous years to 750,000 units in 2010. The average monthly vehicle sales in the United States declined from 1.3 million units in previous years to 2010. The 640,000 vehicles. The growth of car sales in developing countries may not be able to make up for the decline in sales in Europe and the United States. Dump Truck,Tipper Truck,Dumper Truck Jinan Sinoheng Import and Export Co., Ltd. , http://www.challtruck.com
High-cost continuous pressure tire gross margin fell to a foregone conclusion